New poll shows Labour clinging on to London as Nigel Farage’s Reform UK surges to more than 300 MPs

Nigel Farage is on course to be the next Prime Minister, the poll suggests

London would be the only region where Labour would keep most of the MPs it won in 2024 if a general election were held tomorrow, a new poll has suggested.

Nigel Farage is on course to be Prime Minister with Reform UK the favourite to win hundreds of constituencies across the country currently held by the Tories and Labour, an in-depth YouGov survey released on Friday predicts.

The seat-by-seat poll suggests Reform would win 311 MPs across Britain, while Labour would take 144 seats – a loss of 267 MPs.

But in the capital, voters still appear to back Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

More than a third of Labour’s remaining UK seats would be in London, the poll, based on a sample of 13,000 people taken over the last three weeks, shows.

It would make Labour more reliant on the city than any other British party.

Reform would win six new London MPs, the poll suggests, taking Tory controlled Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster and Old Bexley and Sidcup.

Labour-run Dagenham and Rainham, Bexleyheath and Crayford and Health Secretary Wes Streeting’s constituency of Ilford North would also all return Reform candidates, according to the forecasts.

There would be no change for the Liberal Democrats, with the party keeping all six of its MPs in southwest London.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would also retain his Islington North seat as an independent.

Overall, 53 Labour MPs would win in London, down from 59, the poll suggests.

In contrast, many “red wall” seats in the Midlands and Northern England would see voters switch to Reform.
Among the big-name casualties would be current cabinet ministers Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson and Lisa Nandy, as well as former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner.

YouGov’s analysis shows Mr Farage’s party would also take control of a number of constituencies surrounding the capital, including Slough and Hemel Hempstead as well as large parts of Kent and Essex.

However, with 311 MPs Reform would be short of an overall majority.

The Liberal Democrats would have 78 seats, the Conservatives 45, the SNP 37 seats and the Greens seven.

Plaid Cymru would win six, while three seats would be won by left-wing independents, the poll predicts.

This would see a hung parliament with Reform UK winning 311 of the 650 seats, 15 short of an overall majority of 326.