Bangladesh economy shows signs of resilience amid rising digital activity, export growth: GED

Bangladesh’s economy is displaying renewed resilience, supported by a surge in digital transactions, improved external balances, and rising exports, according to the latest economic update from the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission.

The GED report highlights strong momentum in mobile financial services (MFS), with year-on-year growth in transaction volumes across merchant payments and salary disbursements. March 2025 marked a peak, with volumes ranging from Tk 1.53 trillion to Tk 1.78 trillion, driven by festival-related spending.

E-commerce has also seen significant growth. Transactions in FY25 rose nearly 64% compared to FY24, with monthly volumes increasing from Tk 14.48 billion in July 2024 to Tk 23.65 billion in May 2025, indicating sustained consumer interest in digital platforms.

Agricultural credit disbursements reached a high of Tk 3,654.74 crore in May 2025, exceeding last fiscal year’s performance. Industrial production, despite fluctuations, showed resilience with a year-on-year growth peak of 11.39% in October 2024 following a brief dip in August.

External sector rebounds with first current account surplus in five years

One of the most notable improvements came in the external sector. For the first time in five years, the current account balance posted a $1 billion surplus in FY25, while the overall balance reached $3.3 billion — a reversal from persistent deficits since FY22. This turnaround was attributed to a narrower trade deficit, strong remittance inflows, and consistent service sector earnings.

Exports surged, with July 2025 shipments totaling $4.77 billion — nearly 25% higher than the same period in 2024. Strong performances in May and December also underscored improved global demand and competitive positioning. Imports showed stable recovery, particularly in capital goods, suggesting continued investor confidence.

Remittance inflows further bolstered the economy, climbing sharply throughout FY25. In July 2025 alone, Bangladesh received $2.47 billion — a 29.5% rise year-on-year. Seasonal peaks in March, May, and December added to foreign reserves and supported household incomes, aided by policy incentives and improved transfer systems.

The GED said these trends, alongside prudent fiscal and monetary policy, reflect growing confidence in the country’s economic outlook.

Inflation pressures persist due to rice prices

Despite the overall optimism, the report flagged rising rice prices as a major source of inflationary pressure, particularly on food inflation. The contribution of rice to food inflation jumped from 40% in May to 51.55% in July, with medium and coarse rice driving most of the increase. All rice types recorded around 15% inflation in July.

Government efforts to stabilise supply included a target to procure 1.4 million metric tons of Boro rice between April and August 2025. However, distribution in July fell to just 62,889 metric tons — a 36% drop from the previous year.

In response, the Ministry of Food invited private sector applications for rice imports on July 23, with the deadline ending August 7. The GED cautioned, however, that it may take months for the imports to affect market prices. Erratic weather patterns forecasted in the coming months may also keep rice prices elevated.

The report urged the government to expedite rice imports, increase procurement, and expand Open Market Sale (OMS) programmes to curb inflation in the short term.

Inflation outlook improving, but cautious optimism advised

Despite rice-driven inflationary pressures, the GED noted that overall inflation has moderated. When the interim government took office in August 2024, inflation was in double digits. Now, it is projected to close the fiscal year at around 8.5%.

This marks the second consecutive month since February 2023 that inflation remained below 9%, with food inflation staying under 8%. Non-food inflation remained stable throughout FY25.

Notably, prices of vegetables and root crops fell significantly — by 6.48% and 10.34% respectively — helping ease food inflation. Items like hilsa, brinjal, tomato, soybean oil, and pangas also played a moderating role. Contributions from potatoes and onions to food inflation declined sharply by 15.71% and 7.93%, respectively.

Looking ahead, the GED emphasised the need for vigilant monitoring of domestic market conditions and timely agricultural input supply to manage inflation effectively.

Bangladesh Bank has already announced a monetary policy aiming to reduce inflation below 7% by December 2025 while ensuring macroeconomic stability.