OPEC+ likely to hike oil output again as market focus shifts to share over price
Published: 03 August 2025, 4:12:48
Saudi Arabia, Russia, and six other core members of the OPEC+ alliance are expected to approve another oil production hike at their meeting on Sunday, continuing a recent push to reclaim global market share amid strong crude prices.
The eight producers — dubbed the “Voluntary Eight” or V8 — have steadily increased output since April. Analysts predict the group will raise production by another 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) in September, mirroring the August quota hike.
The wider OPEC+ bloc, which includes 12 OPEC nations and allied producers like Russia, had previously implemented deep output cuts totalling nearly 6 million bpd to support prices. But since April, the V8 has prioritized regaining market share, signaling a major shift in strategy.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo believes the expected quota increase is already priced into markets, with Brent crude trading near $70 per barrel. ING’s Warren Patterson noted that the V8 may pause further increases after September, especially as the oil market is projected to enter a significant surplus from October.
High summer demand and elevated geopolitical risk — particularly following the recent 12-day Iran-Israel conflict — have kept oil prices more resilient than expected, despite rising output.
Still, actual production has trailed behind quota increases in recent months, softening the impact on global supply. This cautious ramp-up comes amid concerns that overproduction could lead to falling prices, undercutting revenues for major producers like Saudi Arabia.
Looking ahead, the group will reassess deeper production cuts — around 3.7 million bpd — at the next OPEC+ ministerial meeting in November.
The oil market remains unpredictable, driven by both supply uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting stance on Russia and trade continues to inject volatility. In late July, he threatened fresh sanctions on Moscow unless it ends its war in Ukraine within ten days. He also warned of a 100% surcharge on countries buying Russian oil — specifically targeting India, which currently imports around 1.6 million bpd from Russia.
Despite such threats, Staunovo believes OPEC+ is unlikely to react unless there are actual supply disruptions. For now, the alliance appears to be walking a tightrope — trying to claw back market share without crashing oil prices.
